We will like to share this article that talks about the few things to consider when choosing to bet on a draw.
LONDON, WC2N 5DU, UNITED KINGDOM, March 13, 2019 /EINPresswire.com/ — Often times, some bettors try to develop different strategies by playing exclusively on the draws in football. However, it may be possible to generate long-term profits as well as find value bets on this type of bets. However, it is essential to understand why we choose to bet on a draw. It’s also important to note that some exceptional tipsters offer football predictions and stats on draws.
We will like to share this article that talks about the few things to consider when choosing to bet on a draw. Concretely, what can favor the fact that a match ends in a draw?
The most decisive element: the number of goals expected
Unlike some sports that have very high scores like rugby, basketball or football, a football match has a pretty good chance of a draw. The probability of a draw is therefore closely linked to the number of goals (or points).
In this article, we will show you the most suitable games that have the best chance of ending in a draw.
In first English league, about 26% of matches ended in a draw between 2006 and 2016. The most frequent score being 1-1 (42% of draws), 0-0 (32%) and finally 2-2 (22%).
Intuitively, it is obvious to think that a draw is more likely to occur between two teams of relatively equal level (taking into account the venue of the meeting). This is demonstrated in the statistics since a title contender who hosts a lower team would have a probability of about 14% of a draw, whereas when two average teams are about to play against each other, the probability would be 30. %.
Calculating the chances of a draw in soccer
It must be understood that the probability of a football match being tied is largely related to the number of goals that the two opposing teams are likely to score. Thus, it is possible to calculate with some accuracy the probability that a draw will occur if we know the number of average goals that the teams will score and because of this; it is possible to use the law of Poisson, law used by bookmakers to rate sports events. This same law is also used by some professional tipsters who provide football prediction today for other bettors.
Take, for example, a Premier League match where the goal number expectation is 2.50 total between two teams of equal strength. In this situation, each team will score an average of 1.25 goals in the match.
In this situation, Poisson's law estimates that both teams have a 29% chance of not scoring a goal during the match. The probability that there is then a score of 0-0 is therefore 0.29 * 0.29 = 0.08 = 8% chance that there is 0-0 in this match.
Using the same technique, we would find a 13% chance that there is a score of 1-1. Adding all the probabilities that there is a parity score (0-0, 1-1, 2-2, etc.) we obtain a probability of 27% chance that a draw will occur.
The key to knowing the probability of a draw is to know the average number of goals that each will score against his opponents. Matches that are most likely to end in a draw are matches where the two teams playing against each other are of similar level and have tendencies to have a good defense while being quite inefficient in attack. This will result in games with few goals and therefore a higher chance of scoring.
Conclusion: become a winner by playing the draws
Therefore, To be successful by playing on draws, you should be able to perform an effective analysis, and also be able to determine with enough precision the number of average goals that the two teams can be able to score when they go head to head (this is probably the most difficult to do). Then using the Fish Law, Soccer Bet Tips and Predictions App, we can determine a probability that a draw will occur.
Then it will compare this probability to the odds offered by the bookmakers. If the odds are too high relative to the probability you have determined, then the bet is potentially valuable and will make you earn money in the long run.
You should note that playing the draw matches is playing odds around 3 or 4 against 1. It will take a lot of bets in a bettor's history (at least 1000 bets) to determine if potentially the strategy implemented works and proves successful in the long run.
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Source: EIN Presswire